The End of Coal: Britain’s Energy Future and the Challenges of Transition >
On September 30th, 2024, Britain closed its last coal-fired power plant, marking the end of a
142-year chapter in the nation’s industrial history.
Coal powered Britain’s rise as a global industrial power. As the country moves into the second quarter of the 21st century, the question of what will replace coal looms large — for energy security, national costs, and the ability of the country’s infrastructure to cope with the change.
This transition brings with it a host of challenges: managing the costs of developing new
energy sources; ensuring a stable and secure energy supply; and addressing the question of
whether the UK will lead the world in energy innovation or become reliant on other countries
for key resources and technologies.
The closure of coal plants is only the beginning of a longer journey, one where the stakes
are higher than ever in terms of the impact.
The Legacy of Coal and the Shift to New Energy Sources
For well over a century, coal was the cornerstone of Britain’s energy security. Its abundant
reserves made the country largely self-sufficient in energy production. This autonomy powered Britain's domination in World affairs, building empires, wealth and values overseas... as well as providing stability in both industrial output and the supply of electricity at home, keeping costs manageable and predictable.
Coal’s availability in key regions, particularly in the Midlands, South Wales, and Yorkshire, provided jobs and made Britain less reliant on foreign energy imports.
As coal is phased out, Britain must contend with the reality that no single resource is as
readily available or reliable.
The decline of North Sea oil and gas production has further exacerbated this problem, pushing the country to look to alternative energy sources.
The rejection by Ed Miliband of permits to find more of our own oil and gas... whilst still acknowledging our reliance on it for the foreseeable future... is political posturing of the most baffling kind.
The current alternatives may purport to be cleaner, but they come with a massively complicated set of challenges, in terms of energy security, cost to produce, cost to integrate into the National Grid, and technical viability.
The Challenge of Energy Security
As Britain transitions away from coal, the country becomes more dependent on a
combination of renewable energy sources and imported fuels - often from countries with despicable regimes.
The National Grid will increasingly rely on electricity from offshore wind farms,
nuclear power, and natural gas imports. However, these alternatives come with inherent
risks.
The offshore wind sector, while promising, is highly dependent on weather conditions, storage and connectivity issues to the National Grid. If there is not enough wind, energy production stalls. Too much wind causes shutdowns. Storage technologies are varied yet no single one outperform the others in every category, meaning imperfect results.
Nuclear power is reliable, but costly to build and maintain. Under-investment over many decades, by politicians failing to invest... kicking the can down the road for future government's to deal with... has left us desperately trying to play catch up.
Recent projects, such as the Hinkley Point C nuclear power station, have experienced delays and budget overruns, demonstrating the difficulties in scaling-up nuclear capacity quickly enough to meet the country’s needs.
The UK will have to import more natural gas to fill gaps in energy production,
making it reliant on foreign suppliers and predicted attacks by malevolent actors on vulnerable supply lines.
Given the volatility of global gas prices and potential geopolitical conflicts, this dependence could very well lead to price spikes and supply disruptions, especially during the winter months when demand is highest.
Such a situation would significantly increase energy costs for both businesses and households.
The Financial Burden on the Nation and Individuals
The shift away from coal is not just about securing a stable energy supply — it’s about
managing the significant costs that come with developing new energy infrastructure.
The cost of building renewable energy projects, such as offshore wind farms, has been
astronomical. For example, the UK’s offshore wind sector has required billions of pounds in
investment, with some of the largest projects, like Hornsea One, taking over a decade to
come online.
Although the energy from solar and wind is abundant, it is thinly spread, so the apparatus needed to collect it is almost impossibly enormous.
The amount of concrete required for an offshore wind farm is about nine times the amount needed for the Hinkley Point nuclear facility... then the steel, iron, copper and aluminium for these huge behemoths. Factor in the rare earth minerals required for battery storage too and the holistic cost of 'free' energy rises exponentially.
For the National Grid to integrate these renewable sources into its network, further significant
investment is needed, in both financial and logistical terms.
The grid must be modernised to handle fluctuating energy inputs, especially from wind and solar power, which are inherently intermittent.
Managing these fluctuations requires substantial investment in energy storage solutions or backup generation capacity.
These infrastructure upgrades don’t come cheap... we need to increase the UK's battery capacity from the current level of 4.4 gigawatts (GW) to the predicted 43 terawatts (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.02.149) roughly 1,000 times the current capacity.
And who pays for this? How much higher will electricity bills become for business and consumers?
If you think a trillion pounds sounds similar to a billion pounds, consider this... a million seconds is about 11 days, a billion seconds is 31 years, a trillions seconds is 31,688 years.
One trillion is more than the total number of individual hairs on the head of every resident of London.
In the UK we have already seen energy prices increase due to a combination of global market pressures and the early costs of transitioning to the new energy sources we have.
With the rise of renewable energy, and the associated infrastructure upgrades, energy prices will continue to climb.
We have already lost the ability to make our own steel... vital for defence projects... since the move to electric arc furnaces in our last primary steel producing blast furnace at Port Talbot in September, owned by Indian conglomerate Tata Steel.
Moreover, as the country moves away from coal and older energy technologies, it will have
to contend with the decommissioning costs of ageing infrastructure.
Shutting down coal plants and managing the move to new forms of power generation will place additional burdens on both private companies and the government, which will translate into further expenses for taxpayers, and a country reliant on others for defence.
What Technologies Will Replace Coal?
As Britain seeks to replace coal, a range of technologies is being explored, each with its own
advantages and challenges.
1. Offshore Wind: Britain leads the world in offshore wind capacity, and it is set
to be a major part of the country’s energy future. However, offshore wind is expensive to
install, and its reliability depends on weather conditions. The construction and maintenance
of offshore wind farms also require significant upfront investment and long-term upkeep.
2. Nuclear Power: Nuclear energy provides a reliable and consistent power
supply, making it an essential part of Britain’s energy strategy. However, as projects like
Hinkley Point C demonstrate, nuclear plants are expensive and take years—sometimes
decades—to build. The UK is also looking into Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), with mixed results. Rolls Royce recently scrapped a new £200m plant, preferring to outsource key components from other countries as they fall behind in the race to be the first to make SMR robust and commercially viable. SMR's look like they could change the whole market, by producing cheap, clean energy locally (rather than centrally distributed) but they are still in the developmental stage, Britain has fallen behind China and Russia, and won’t be ready for widespread deployment for several years.
3. Natural Gas: While coal is being phased out, natural gas remains the crucial
part of the UK’s energy mix. However, much of this gas is imported, primarily from Norway
and other countries, leaving Britain exposed to global price fluctuations and potential supply
disruptions. Even more so now that the UK government has recently scrapped new oil and gas exploration. The rising cost of gas is already affecting household energy bills, and this
reliance could make prices even more volatile in the future. The price of gas generally dictates the price of electricity, leaving us doubly vulnerable to terrorist threats to gas supply lines.
4. Hydrogen: Hydrogen is being touted as a potential future energy source,
especially for sectors that are difficult to electrify, such as heavy industry and transport.
However, the infrastructure for hydrogen is still in its infancy, and scaling up production to
meet national demand would require significant investment in technology and infrastructure.
5. Energy Storage: One of the biggest challenges for renewables is
intermittency — wind and solar power are not always available when needed. To manage this, Britain will need to invest in large-scale energy storage solutions, such as battery systems or pumped hydro storage, to store excess energy generated during periods of high production and release it when demand peaks.
However, current battery technology is expensive, and scaling it up to meet national energy demands will take time.
Can the National Grid Cope?
The transition to a new energy landscape is placing significant pressure on the National
Grid, which was originally designed for a more stable, predictable energy supply. To
accommodate the increased reliance on intermittent renewable energy sources, the grid will
need to be upgraded to be more flexible and responsive.
Currently, the UK’s grid is struggling to keep up with the pace of change. Projects to
integrate renewables into the grid have often taken decades to implement, with costs
running into the billions. For example, the construction of new offshore wind farms requires
connecting them to the grid through undersea cables, which is an expensive and
time-consuming process.
To manage the variability of renewable energy, the grid will also need to incorporate
advanced forecasting technology to predict when wind and solar power will be available.
This will help to balance supply and demand more effectively, but it will require further
investment in smart grid technology.
In addition, the grid will need to be equipped with more backup power sources to ensure
stability when renewable energy is not available. This could involve keeping gas plants on
standby, which is expensive but necessary to prevent blackouts.
Conclusion: Navigating Britain’s Energy Future
As Britain moves away from coal, the country faces a complex and costly transition. While
renewable energy sources such as wind and nuclear power offer potential solutions, they
come with significant financial and infrastructure challenges. The modernisation of the National Grid, the construction of new power plants, and the development of energy storage
technologies will all require obscene amounts of investment—and those costs will ultimately be borne by businesses and consumers.
Is it time to consider whether all of the trillions of pounds would be better spent elsewhere... Carbon Capture technologies? Investigating new innovative ways to decarbonise?
The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones, it was superceded by a new, proven technology... how can we transfer to something now that is so imperfect, no matter how noble the motivation?
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